Visa bulletin predictions from past movement

12-month projections by category

For each category and country, the table shows the November 2026 cut-off on the chart USCIS accepts, the average movement in days per month over the last 12, 36 and 60 months, and where the date would be in 12 months at the 3-year pace, with the slow-to-fast range underneath.^[1]

Pace figures are days of cut-off movement per calendar month; 30 means the queue keeps up with the calendar. A projection that reaches the bulletin month is shown as C.

EB-2 India projection

EB-2 India has the longest employment backlog. The chart extends its published cut-off 24 months forward at the slowest and fastest of its three paces.^[1][4] Full history is on the EB-2 India priority date page.

F4 Mexico projection

F4 Mexico, brothers and sisters of U.S. citizens chargeable to Mexico, is one of the longest family queues. See all family backlogs on the green card wait time page.

How accurate were last year's projections?

We tested the method on our own data: for every category and country, we took the cut-off about 12 months ago, projected it forward with only the 3-year pace known at that time, and compared the projection with the published date in November 2026.^[1] Across 44 queues, the median miss was 13.2 months, and 10 of 44 projections landed within 6 months of the real date.

A positive miss means the real date moved further than projected. Large misses come from jumps at the start of a fiscal year and from retrogression, which no pace-based method can foresee. That is why every projection on this site is shown as a range.

Why visa bulletin predictions often miss

The State Department sets dates each month from demand data that is not public, and it sometimes adds a short note on likely future movement at the end of a bulletin.^[3] Past pace cannot see:

• Annual limits running out: late in the fiscal year a category can turn U and stay there until October.
• Retrogression: when demand exceeds supply, dates move backward, sometimes by years.
• Spillover: unused family numbers raise the next year's employment limit, and vice versa.
• Chart switches: USCIS may move from Dates for Filing to Final Action Dates, changing who can file.^[2]

Use these numbers to plan ranges, not to promise dates. To apply them to your own case, use the priority date calculator; for the latest month, see the current visa bulletin.